Bird Flu Pandemic inevitable, 7 million people could die, WHO
Posted by Clark Venable on 11/27/2004
Bird Flu Pandemic inevitable, 7 million people could die, WHO:
""The World Health Organization is urging countries to prepare for an ‘inevitable flu pandemic' it believes will probably come from a mutated bird flu virus. Dr Klaus Stohr, WHO Influenza Program Coordinator, says as many as seven million people could be killed.
Stohr is urging health ministries in Asian countries to prepare and take measures for a probable flu pandemic. Dr Stohr insists it is only a matter of time - we have gone beyond wondering whether there will be one, the stage now is trying to forecast ‘when' a pandemic will hit.
Dr Stohr says the next pandemic will most likely come from a mutation of the bird (avian) flu virus. He said "Even with the best-case scenarios, the most optimistic scenarios, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency. There are estimates which would put the number of deaths in the range of between two and seven million."
The H5N1 bird flu strain, the most dangerous, has hit Thailand and Vietnam hard. Millions of poultry have had to be destroyed - 30 people have died.
The virus only kills humans who have close contact with infected poultry. The concern among health experts is that the virus could mutate and spread from human to human. If the virus were to infect a pig, the jump (mutation) from pig to human would be much more likely (emphasis mine).
If the strain were to mutate and have the ability to spread among humans, nobody would be immune - the consequences could be catastrophic. According to Stohr, this could happen at any time.
WHO experts say that countries in Asia which have the weakest health systems are precisely the ones that need the most support as they are the most likely places to host the beginnings of a pandemic. ""
Stohr is urging health ministries in Asian countries to prepare and take measures for a probable flu pandemic. Dr Stohr insists it is only a matter of time - we have gone beyond wondering whether there will be one, the stage now is trying to forecast ‘when' a pandemic will hit.
Dr Stohr says the next pandemic will most likely come from a mutation of the bird (avian) flu virus. He said "Even with the best-case scenarios, the most optimistic scenarios, the pandemic will cause a public health emergency. There are estimates which would put the number of deaths in the range of between two and seven million."
The H5N1 bird flu strain, the most dangerous, has hit Thailand and Vietnam hard. Millions of poultry have had to be destroyed - 30 people have died.
The virus only kills humans who have close contact with infected poultry. The concern among health experts is that the virus could mutate and spread from human to human. If the virus were to infect a pig, the jump (mutation) from pig to human would be much more likely (emphasis mine).
If the strain were to mutate and have the ability to spread among humans, nobody would be immune - the consequences could be catastrophic. According to Stohr, this could happen at any time.
WHO experts say that countries in Asia which have the weakest health systems are precisely the ones that need the most support as they are the most likely places to host the beginnings of a pandemic. ""
That bolded phrase--The concern among health experts is that the virus could mutate and spread from human to human. If the virus were to infect a pig, the jump (mutation) from pig to human would be much more likely--deserves further explanation. I'm reading the book The Great Influenza, by John M. Barry, who gives a nice summary of why pigs can make it fly (so to speak):
""The virus may also adapt indirectly, through an intermediary. Some virologists theorize that pigs provide a perfect "mixing bowl", because the sialic-acid receptors on their cells can bind to both bird and human viruses. Whenever an avian virus infects swine at the same time at the same time that a human virus does, reassortment of the two viruses can occur. An an entirely new virus can emerge that can infect man. In 1918 veterinarians noted oubreaks of influenza in pigs and other mammals, and pigs to day still get influenza from direct descendents of the 1918 virus. But it is not clear whether pigs caught the disease form man or man caught it from pigs.""
For more information, see The World Health Organization page on pandemic preparedness.
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